The next Federal election will set the political direction for the rest of the decade. The Federal Government's cohesion is beginning to unravel over its relationship with trade unions and business. The recession has cost jobs and destroyed business confidence and the Government is perceived as not having the solutions. The election is going to be fought over the economic consequences of the recession and labour market and micro-economic reform. A large percentage of voters, perhaps 25 per cent or more, will be very unenthused about the limited choice provided by the major parties and will vote on green and social justice issues. In the last few months the Greens and Democrats have discussed options for combining forces at the national level to fight the next election.

In light of that, many within the Green movement - and I daresay the Democrats would have viewed the recent Democrat leadership debacle with dismay. The appearance of disunity over questions of personality and leadership style, and the confusion over process all left the impression of amateurism and lack of discipline. In the short term, it leaves the Party divided and lacking credibility. It would appear to have destroyed any chance of the Greens and Democrats forming a new party, or of a merger between the two groups.

The time-line for effecting such a major organisational change was always tight. With uncertainty over the leadership, and a question mark over the effectiveness and longterm viability of the Democrats, most green groups see it as a lost cause. At the very time Democrat senators were overturning their leadership, the Tasmanian Greens were sending a questionnaire to their supporters to see if they would be interested in become involved in a Federal campaign. Some of the questions related to involvement with the Democrats. It would appear unlikely that the Green supporters would endorse joint action at this time. In fact. the timing is so bad that it may now never happen, given that this election is the window of opportunity and that the culture of the two groups is so different. It may even have destroyed the Democrats themselves as a viable force.

So what options are now open to the Greens?

They can either - as in the past - run as a disparate group of candidates, which is a recipe for failure. Or they can set up a national organisation and field a full slate of Senate candidates and some candidates in winnable Lower House seats. If the latter course were chosen, it would still be necessary to arrange a co-operative agreement with the Democrats. If the next election is a normal half-Senate and House of Representatives poll, the Democrats will retain five senators with Senators Powell (Vic.) and Sowada (NSW) up for re-election. Those five senators will prevent the Coalition from control of both Houses, which would provide them with the opportunity to roll back the gains of the last 10 years. A problem only arises here if the Prime Minister calls a double dissolution. which is quite unlikely at this stage. An agreement to co-operate between the Greens and Democrats would need to include a tight exchange of preferences in the Senate, an agreed platform of issues to fight the election, and no competition between high profile candidates in Lower House seats.

The greatest opportunities for a Green national push are in NSW. In Sydney and the north coast, independent and green candidates already have a successful track record. There are also good prospects in Tasmania, where the Greens are well organised, and in Western Australia, where the various Green groups have formed a single organisation.

In Victoria, life will be harder as the ALP and the Democrats already occupy the green part of the political spectrum. In South Australia the Green movement is not as strong as in the eastern States, while the Democrats - particularly with the presence of John Coulter and Meg Lees - cover green issues very effectively. In Queensland, the Green movement is growing in strength and could make an impact: however, it has to contend with the popularity of newly elected and invigorated State Labor party.

The issues to fight the campaign with are not clear. Resource Security Legislation, Federal-State power-sharing arrangements, the raft of issues to emerge from the ESD process, the linking of State power grids, and the international protocols around greenhouse and ozone are all national issues. The key will be to develop a platform that addresses the major national issues, while keeping the focus on State-based and local concerns that will generate grassroots activity and give the Lower House candidates a chance to get elected.

The Green movement, especially in Tasmania and among the national community organisations, has the political skill and the membership to make advances at the next election. It will be a test of their professionalism and ability to focus on the long-term strategies. It is a test the Democrats have failed recently.

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