Immediate Release: Thursday 4 June 1992

The Climate Convention, opened for signature today, will not slow global warming to tolerable rates, according to analysis for Friends of the Earth, published today [1].

Fiona Weir, Climate Change Campaigner said: "Binding targets have been sacrificed to accommodate the US, the world's largest carbon polluter. Even under highly optimistic assumptions, the Convention fails to avert a potentially catastrophic climate change. Global emissions of greenhouse gases will continue to escalate."

In Geneva in 1990 ministers from 66 nations urged that before the Earth Summit: "developing countries should ... develop detailed programmes, strategies and/or targets for ... achieving reductions in all greenhouse gas emissions not controlled by the Monitorial Protocol."[2]

Friends of the Earth today challenged industrialised countries at the Earth Summit to sign the Austrian Declaration and to commit themselves to setting a national carbon dioxide (C02) reduction target.

Friends of the Earth research shows that emissions of carbon dioxide, the main contributor to global warming, may still double by 2100. Only 16% will be shaved off projected emissions.

The impact of the Climate Convention on future temperature will also be marginal. Global temperatures may still be 0.8 degrees C higher than today by 2030 and Z.4 degrees C higher by 21000 - a drop of only 0.3 degrees C upon a business as usual scenario. The impact on sea levels would be even smaller. The best estimate for global sea level in 2100 is 54cm higher than today. [1]

The projected rate of temperature rise over the next century is about twice the rate which may be tolerable. Scientists have shown that a rate of temperature change of greater than 0.1 degrees C per decade is likely to cause severe disruption to social and economic systems. To keep climate change within this limit requires cuts in global emissions of carbon dioxide of 20-35% on 1990 levels by the year 2000, with deeper cuts thereafter [3].

By failing to include legally binding timetables for developed countries to reduce their emissions the Climate Convention will fail to meet its Objective, Article 2, of preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with climate. A firm commitment to reductions in greenhouse gases is needed Delaying action increases the likely cost and severity of future measures to control greenhouse gases..

[1] Research for Friends of the Earth by Susan Subak of the Stockholm Environment Institue in Boston. The temperature and sea level rise project ons are produced using STUGE 'An Interative Greenhouse Model courtesy of T Wigley, T Holt and S Raper of the Climate Research Unit, Universlty of East Anslia, UK.

[2] Ministerial Declaration, Second World Climate Conference, 1990, Geneva

[3] Back from the Brink, Greenhouse Gas Targets for a Sustainable World, J H W Karas, Friends of the Earth, London, 1991 .

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