MANILA, Mar 16 1994 (IPS) - Asian countries desperately trying to increase food production to keep pace with population growth may face falling harvests because of global climate change caused by the greenhouse effect, scientists warn. The situation is already precarious: Asian rice stocks are at a 20 year low, yield is plateauing off and paddy fields are being bulldozed for urban expansion. And a new technological leap to boost rice production like the Green Revolution of the 1960s is at least 10 years away. Meanwhile, Asia's three billion population is expanding rapidly. To make matters worse, rice production is facing a threat from a completely different source -- global warming. ''The spectre of famine has not touched the Asian continent in the way it has blighted Africa ... (yet) even a small drop in Asian rice harvests could bring mass starvation,'' said Peter Usher, of the United Nations Environment Programme at a conference here on Climate Change and Rice. More than 60 agronomists, meteorologists and rice experts are meeting at the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) outside Manila this week to assess the dangers to rice production from global warming and to suggest ways to prepare for it. ''The jury is still out on what overall impact global warming will have on food production, but it is clear that climate change is putting the world on a food security tightrope,'' Usher added, and urged countries to curb emissions of greenhouse gases. Build-up of carbon dioxide and other gases in the atmosphere is warming the earth, and could raise global average temperatures by up to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the year 2040. Scientists working with global weather models say this will dramatically shift climate zones over latitude and altitude. For instance, crop yields are expected to fall in Western Australia, the Argentine pampas and the Indian subcontinent. In the Himalaya, rice can be grown higher up the slopes but not in valleys. The Southwest monsoon may intensify, typhoons could get fiercer, bringing more rain in summer and less in winter. Although average annual rainfall is expected to increase globally as the planet warms, some parts of th world will see rainfall decrease by up to half. Rise in carbon dioxide could also lead to healthier rice plants, increasing harvest by up to 80 percent in some areas, but weeds and harmful pests will also thrive in the warmer, more humid climates. Global warming could also raise sea levels, submerging large areas of fertile deltas in China, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Burma. Usher said the predictions should illustrate the potential cost of inaction which could ''create millions of environmental refugees to add to those wandering victims of war and political oppression''. He said one direct result of the heightened concern was the signature of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change by 166 governments, which could allow it to come into force this month. Scientists at IRRI have been growing rice in greenhouses with various climatic models and research so far has shown that rice has sufficient genetic diversity so seeds can be selected to maximise harvests in a future carbon dioxide-rich environment. Researchers in Europe and North America have been conducting their own studies and have found that total yields of many food crops could decrease as the earth warms up. They also say tropical areas of the world where many developing countries are located would be worse affected than temperate regions. ''If these effects occur, they would have major implications on world food security and trade,'' say J. W. Jones and a team of U.S. scientists in a paper at the IRRI conference. There will be 4.3 billion rice-eaters in the world in the next 30 years -- most of them living in Asia. But although rice production is going up, agriculture experts expect a 50 million tonne annual shortfall by the year 2000. The IRRI conference will also look at another aspect of climate change: paddy fields emit methane -- a much more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. Paradoxically, this means that increasing rice production will also increase methane and possibly enhance the greenhouse effect. ''The trade-off between rice production and methane mitigation is potentially high,'' say R. Ranganathan and P. Pingali, two researchers at IRRI. (END/IPS/KD/LNH/94) On atolls, global warming is not just hot air SUVA, Fiji, Mar 31 1994 (IPS) - For some tiny South Pacific island countries like Tokelau, Kiribati and Marshall Islands, global warming is not just hot air: it is a matter of life or death. While sea-level rise caused by the greenhouse effect may affect climate and rainfall in some parts of the world, it could wipe these low-lying atolls off the face of the earth. Even on larger Pacific islands like Vanuatu, Solomon Islands or Tonga, a majority of the population lives just one metre above sea level. If global temperatures rise by three degrees celsius by the year 2050 as predicted, sea levels worldwide will submerge entire atoll chains and many coastal areas. Now, countries in the region have got together under the South Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SRPEP) to study the effects of rising sea levels and other environmental threats to the region. But the people of the Pacific nations realise there is a limit to how much they can mitigate their environmental problems. Sea- level rise, for instance, is a global problem and its solution is immediate global action to curb carbon dioxide emissions. ''We believe it is the moral responsibility of the international community to ensure our future survival through firm commitments to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and provide financial resources such as an insurance compensation scheme,'' said green activist Maiava Peteru in New York recently. Peteru, speaking on behalf of Pacific non-governmental organisations, was attending a meeting on small island nations in New York. The conference was in preparation for a United Nations sponsored Global Conference on the Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States in Barbados in Apr. 25 - May 6. Even if atoll dwellers manage to keep their heads above the water as sea-levels start to rise in the next century, experts say it will threaten the fresh water lens under the islands with saltwater intrusion, contaminating already scarce drinking water. While scientists bicker about the uncertainties of the greenhouse effect and sea-level rise, many South Pacific nations note that tidal surges are climbing higher while typhoons are getting fiercer. In Tokelau and Tuvalu, municipal authorities are already building concrete barriers and wave deflectors. Houses are putting up extra storage tanks to collect rainwater. Unable to wait for global action on sea-level rise, agencies like SRPEP have launched a study with help from the Asian Development Bank (AsDB) and the U. N. Development Programme (UNDP) to set up national environment management plans. Called the South Pacific Sea Level and Climate Monitoring project, the study will set up measurement stations to look at the rate of global warming and its effect on meteorological phenomena like the El Nino effect which governs weather patterns in the South Pacific. While global warming may take more than a national strategy to prevent, SRPEP is looking at more immediate threats like rapid population growth, coral reef destruction and over-fishing. Most Pacific island nations like Kiribati and Tonga have populations of less than 70,000. But since land is limited and population is expanding rapidly it has put serious pressure on natural resources, according to a report prepared by SRPEP. Destruction of mangroves and coral mining for limestone and pollution of lagoons and coastal waters have destroyed vital breeding waters for fish. Off-shore, destructive drift-net fishing by Taiwanese, Japanese and Russian factory ships have been limited in recent years but overfishing still remains a threat. ''For many Pacific nations like Kiribati, Marshall Islands and Tuvalu offshore marine resources represent almost the sole opportunity for substantial economic development,'' says a SRPEP report, 'Environment and Development, a Pacific Island Perspective'. As fish get scarcer, impoverished fishermen turn to dynamite fishing which in turn destroys corals. Fish poisons and commonly used in some areas to stun fish so they are easier to catch. On small islands, logging and deforestation in uplands has an immediate and devastating impact on coastal marine life. Sedimentation kills off corals and mangroves. Some 15 Pacific members of SRPEP have now drawn up national environment management plans which will look at a sustainable path to development and the strategies to be adopted. South Pacific islands are one of the world's richest centres of biodiversity because of the coral reefs, which have been called the rainforest of the seas. A 10-million-dollar South Pacific Biodiversity Conservation Programme was launched last year to protect corals and endemic terrestrial species with funding from the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and the Australian government. SRPEP recently moved its headquarters from Noumea in New Caledonia to Apia in Western Samoa and is now making final preparations for the U.N. conference in Barbados next month. (END/IPS/KS/KD/94)
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