China's rapid industrial growth will lead to "substantial" increases in emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), the leading greenhouse gas, but the Chinese have "a right to that, if you look at how we in the Western world have developed," a Dutch climate expert says.

Dr. Ir. B. C. J. Zoeteman, Deputy-Director of the Dutch environmental ministry (VROM), said in a recent interview with the journal Change that he expects China ultimately to move toward stabilization of CO2 emissions along with the major industrial countries as its standard of living rises.

Zoeteman is a member of the international China Council, a group composed of high Chinese government officials and experts from other countries who have been asked to advise the country on economic development and the environment.

The Council met this summer and approved a recommendation that China "join in fixing national targets for atmospheric carbon emissions as part of an equitable international regime," language which Zoeteman sees as an indication of willingness to agree to eventual stabilization targets.

"What you need in order to reduce the CO2 emission is an approach which combines energy saving with an improvement of efficiency; clean technology, such as flue gas desulfurization; and the development of alternative energy sources," Zoeteman said.

"The chances are good for a planned approach [to managing greenhouse gases] in China. Nowhere else in the world can 1.1 billion people be governed from one central point. It is a challenge for the Council to work on a National Environmental Policy Plan for China."

Carbon dioxide, he added, is far from the only environmental problem facing China as a result of its industrial expansion: "There are gigantic environmental problems . . . Fifty thousand Chinese die of lung cancer in the cities every year, due to air polution. One million people suffer from fluorosis, an excess of fluorine in the body. Small rivers 'die' due to mercury pollution.

"But they are also aware of the global environmental problems. China is interested in the climate problem, not just because it has consequences for the world in general, but also for the country itself. China harbors 22 percent of the world's population, but only five percent of the total global precipitation falls there. If the climate change currently being predicted by the models actually occurs, then that will [fall] to three percent.

"Furthermore, the precipitation pattern will alter: it will fall primarily in the north of China, and less in the fertile south, where most of the population lives. That will present a problem for agriculture and food production . . . " [see "Climate Change Could Threaten China's Food Supply," Wind Energy Weekly #526, December 14, 1992, p. 4]

Japan, Zoeteman said, is an instructive example for the Chinese on the results of unrestrained development. Japan's rapid industrialization resulted in a series of environmental problems.

The China Council, he said, resulted from a small-scale initiative with the island of Hainan: "As a sort of experiment, a specially-created council made a plan for the island's development. It was thought: let's do it in a sustainable way. A council was set up with this objective. The approach appeared to be so effective that the Chinese government thought: 'Why don't we do this for the whole country?'"

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