In the process of industrialising, the developed world has brought us to the brink of a climatic catastrophe. But it is those in poor, less developed, countries who will suffer most because their poverty and existhg inequities leave thcm most vulnerable to climate change.

This divide has become a broadly-accepted truth and has been the subject of many a grand statement. Despite this, the developed world is shirkng its responsibility, often endeavouring to put the blame on to poorer countries The facts presented here challenge this position, showing clearly the divide between those who caused the problem and those who will be most affected. There is no doubt that the scale of the problem requires a global response, but the polluter must pay.

Apportioning the Blame

Developed countries are responsible for bringing the world to the brink of a potenially catastrophic climate change. The escalation in greenhouse gas concentrations in thc atmosphere over the last few hundred years is largely due to activitzes which are fundamental to modern civilisation: for exampe, fossil fuel burning, industry, deforestation and thc intensification and expansion of agricultural activities.

• During the 1980s, developed countries, with 20 per cent of the world's population were responsible for over half of the observed rise in greenhouse gas content in the atmosphere.
• Developed countries contribute the bulk of carbon dioxide emissions, the major greenhouse gas and, between 1931 and 1989, contributed 95 per cent of global chlorofluorocarbon emissions. Nitrous oxide emissions are also dominated by the industrialised world.
• Only in the case of methane, do emissions from the developing world dominate. Since emissions of this gas are often fundamental to agriculture, a large part of these emissions are unavoidable.
• The contribution of the developed world is greater even than these figures. Some goods are manufactured in the developing world and exported to the developed world. Furthermore, these goods are often manufactured by multinational companies, who then remove some of the profits from the countries concerned. It has been estimated that the activities of big multinational companies account for 50 per cent of all greenhouse gas emissions. Many have budgets larger than some countries.

The Energy Dimension

Fossil fuel burning and cement making are activities fiundamental to industrialised society and the major cause of the problem of climate change. The historic and current cause for such emissions lies with the developed world. While emissions from the developing world will inevitably increase as the developing world industrialises, the prinnciple responsibility for climate change will lie with the developed world.

• In 1989, the developed world contributed 61 per cent of global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels, the principle anthropogenic source of this gas. The USA contributed 23 per cent, the USSR and Eastern Europe 25 per cent, the European Community 13 per cent and the rest of the world 39 per cent.
• In 1988, per capita emissions of carbon from fossil fuels and cement making in the developed world were 9 times as large as those in the developing world.
• In 1988, fossil carbon emissions from North America alone rose by 65 MtC (millions of tons of carbon), nearly five times the absolute increase in the entire continents of Africa and Latin America.
• If one takes into account historic emissions in allocating responsibility, then the difference in responsibility for the problem is even greater.
• Between 1950 and 1985, the industrialised countries (OECD plus former COMECON) contributed 82 per cent to global energy related carbon dioxide emissions.
• From 1950 to 1986, per capita emissions of carbon from fossil fuels in industrialised countries were 11 times those in developing countries. The imbalance between the two groups widens further as one goes back in time.
• The extremes are even more revealing - the average North American is responsible for twenty times more carbon from fossil fuels and cement making than the average African
• Annual emissions of carbon dioxide from the developing world are likely to acceed those of the developed world within the next decade. However, the long lifetime of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, 50 to 200 years, means that the disproportionate impact of historic emissions from the developed world will continue well into the next century.

The Geography Deforestation

The cutting down of tropical forests contributes significantly to emissions of carbon dioxde. This fact is frequently used to hammer home the responsibility of developing countries for climate change. This position ignores the historic contribution of deforestation in the North to the problem and deflects the argument away from the ongoing destruction of northern forests. More seriously still, it fails to recognise the role of developed countries in thc destruction of the tropical forests today.

• During the course of human history, cumulative forest losses amount to about 2 billion hectares. This loss occurred mostly in temperate zones and is equivalent to the present total tropical forest area.
• Over the last 200 years, deforestation through burning and felling is thought to have contributed to almost half of the increase in carbon dioxide emissions during that period.
• During the 1980s, land-use changes involving the destruction of forests through burning or felling were responsible for 15-30 pet cent of carbon dioxide emissions and about 9 per cent of total greenhouse gas emissions.
• The total area of forests at present amounts to about 4 billion hectares. Of this, about half is tropical forests, a third is boreal forest and a sixth is temperate forest.
• Assuming current trends continue, tropical deforestation could be responsible for between 9 and 36 per cent of carbon dioxide emissions in 2050.
• Virtually all the current flux in carbon associated with land-use changes comes from the tropics. Over the last 135 years releases from the tropics havc been 2-3 times those in middle to high latitudes. However, land-use changes in temperate regions resulted in the greatest releases in the 19th and early 20th century. Tropical deforestation has only become a major source of carbon during the last few decades.
• However, while about 10 per cent of the Amazonian rainforest has been felled over the last 50 years, 45 per cent of the UK's ancient rainforest has been lost. In the USA, only 8 per cent of the country's original forest cover remains and in recent years, the trees have been felled at a faster rate than those in the Amazon rainforest.

The Role of Debt

Tropical deforestation is in part a product of pressure both to repay debts, which have spiralled out of control as Western interest rates have grown, and of the Northern thirst for timber and other goods produced in the tropics.

• The pressure to repay debts is a key driving force behind environmental destruction. The 27 developing countries that possess 97 per cent of the Earth's remaining rainforests are all heavily indebted.
• In 1990, the total debt owed by developing nations to donor governments and commercial banks stood at US$1350 billion.
• In recent years indebtedness has led to a net transfer of money from South to North. Between 1983 and 1987, net IMF transfers to developing countries turned from plus US$7.6 billion to minus US$7.9 billion. In 1991, net World Bank transfers were minus US$1.7 billion, of which $500 million were to current borrowers. Third World countries are currently paying out $2.5 billion more to the UK than they receive in aid.
• Logging directly affects between 45,000 sq km and 50,000 sq km. of forest every year. By value, European Community imports of tropical timber and timber products are equivalent to those of Japan or the United States, worth approximately US$2 billion annually.
• Other imported commodities such as livestock feed and minerals also contribute to tropical deforestation. Approximately one fifth of the European Community's annual soya bean imports are from Brazil, where forests are being razed to allow for expansion. The absorption of small farms into plantations has forced increasing numbers of people into the Amazonian hinterland.

Population versus Consumption

Much has been made of the fact that greenhouse gas emissions from the developing world will overtake those of the developed world early next century and the role of population growth in developing countries in this increase. However, population growth in the developed world is likely lo prove more important in the near future, as people born into these countries will consume more energy.

• In assessing responsibility, the straight divide between developing and developed country emissions is unfair. Population in developing countries is currently 3.4 times that of the developed world and, in an equal world, these countries would have higher emissions.
• Population growth will inevitably result in higher emissions as more peoplc partake in activities which result in emissions. World population is projected to grow at an average of 13 per cent per year, reaching about 8.2 billion by 2025.
• Over the period 1990-95, population in the developed world is projected to increase at 0.48 per cent per year, while population in developing countries will grow at 2.06 per cent per year. However, despite the higher rate of population growth in the developing world, it is the population growth in the developed world which will contribute most to climate change in the near future due to higher per capita emissions of greenhousc gases.
• The increase in emissions of carbon due to fossil fuel burning and cement production from the developed world due to population growth from 1990-1991 was 2.6 times the increase in emissions from the developing world over the same period.
• Arresting consumption in the industrialised world is the highest priority, both for the direct impact on emissions but also to lead the way to less carbon-intensive development.

Hostages to Fortune

It is impossible to accurately predict how climate may change, but one thing is certain - that those in poorer, developing countries will suffer most, as they do today. Worse still, adverse impacts in developed countries could cascade through the world's socio-economic system to impact on poorer countries The acute vulnerability of much of the South relative to the prosperous North stems from existing inequities, the repercussions of which are felt even today.

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