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In
favour of a mathematical
model:
The MIT team claimed that a formally
stated mathematical model was better than
mental models because the interactions
were specified and assumptions made
explicit.
"Ours is a formal, written model of the
world. It constitutes a preliminary
attempt to improve our mental models of
long-term, global problems by combining
the large amount of information that is
already in human minds and in written
records with the new
information-processing tools that
mankind's increasing knowledge has
produced--the scientific method, systems
analysis, and the modern computer."
ref: Donella Meadows et al, The Limits
to Growth, Pan Books, 1972.
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Against
a mathematical model:
Christopher Freeman argued the use of a
mathematical computer model encouraged
delusion in five ways:
- giving the spurious appearance of
precise knowledge of quantities and
relationships which are unknown and in
many cases unknowable.
- encouraging the neglect of factors
which are difficult to quantify such as
policy changes or value changes.
- stimulating gross
over-simplification, because of the
problem of aggregation and the
comparative simplicity of our computers
and mathematic techniques.
- encouraging the tendency to treat
some features of the model as rigid and
immutable.
- making it extremely difficult for
the non-numerate or those who do not
have access to computers to rebut what
are essentially tendentious and rather
naive political assumptions.
ref: Christopher Freeman, 'Malthus with a
Computer' in Thinking About the
Future ed. by HSD Cole et al, Chatto
& Windus, 1973, p12.
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