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World Population Growing
More Slowly But Could Still Reach 9.4 Billion by
2050
Population Division,
Department for Economic and Social Information and
Policy Analysis
NEW YORK, 13 November 1996 (Department for
Economic and Social Information and Policy
Analysis) At mid-1996, world population stood at
5.77 billion persons. Between 1990 and 1995, the
world population grew at 1.48 per cent per annum,
with an average of 81 million persons added each
year. This is much below the 1.72 per cent per
annum at which population had been growing between
1975 and 1990, and much below the 87 million person
added each year between 1985 and 1990, which stands
now as the peak period in the history of world
population growth.
These figures are from the recently released
1996 Revision of the official United Nations
population estimates and projections, prepared by
the Population Division of the Department for
Economic and Social Information and Policy
Analysis.
Currently, 4.59 billion persons-- 80 per cent of
the world population-- live in the less developed
regions, and 1.18 billion persons live in the more
developed regions. The average annual growth rate
is about 1.8 per cent in the less developed regions
and 0.4 per cent in the more developed regions.
The 1996 Revision presents the estimates, from
1950 to 1995, and the projections, from 1995 to
2050, for the population of the 228 countries and
areas of the world, which range from Pitcairn, with
66 residents, to China, with 1.232 billion persons.
According to the United Nations, the countries with
the largest population size are, after China, India
(945 million), the United States of America (269
million), and Indonesia (200 million). Six other
countries have populations over 100 million: Brazil
(161 million), the Russian Federation (148
million), Pakistan (140 million), Japan (125
million), Bangladesh (120 million) and Nigeria (115
million). Those 10 countries are the only ones
whose population has currently exceeded the 100
million mark. According to the medium-fertility
variant projection, by the year 2050 seven
additional countries will have crossed that mark:
Ethiopia, Iran, Zaire, Mexico, Philippines, Viet
Nam and Egypt.
The population growth rate of 1.48 per cent per
annum for 1990-1995 indicated in the 1996 Revision
is significantly lower than the 1.57 per annum
expected by the United Nations two years ago in its
1994 Revision. The world population in 1995 is 29
million (0.5 per cent) lower than expected in the
1994 Revision. The population of the less developed
regions is 34 million lower than expected in the
previous Revision, and the population of the more
developed regions is 5 million higher than
previously expected. The reduction in the expected
growth rate results from a faster fertility decline
than previously anticipated ( a world average of
2.96 children per woman in 1990-1995, instead of
3.10 children). A major consequence is that the
population of the world projected in the
medium-fertility variant, the one usually
considered the most likely, will be 9.4 billion in
2050, nearly half-a-billion (4.7 per cent) lower
than projected in the 1994 Revision. This
population could be 11.1 billion in 2050 according
to the high-fertility variant, or 7.7 billion
according to the low-fertility variant; these two
variants, while less likely, are also possible
courses of the world population growth.
The population of the less developed regions is
now estimated to have grown at 1.77 per cent per
annum between 1990 and 1995, instead of 1.88 per
cent as expected by the United Nations two years
ago. A major factor in the lower than expected
growth rate are faster than expected fertility
declines in a number of countries of South-central
Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Fertility is now
estimated to have declined in Bangladesh from 6.2
children in 1980-1985 to 3.4 in 1990-1995, in India
from 4.5 to 3.4, in Pakistan from 6.5 to 5.5, in
Turkey from 4.1 to 2.7, in Myanmar from 4.9 to 3.6,
in the Syrian Arab Republic from 7.4 to 4.7. In
Kenya from 7.5 to 5.4, in Côte d'Ivoire from
7.4 to 5.7. Globally, fertility in Africa is now
estimated to be 5.7 children per woman in 1990-1995
instead of 5.8 as projected two years ago.
Another factor in the reduction of the expected
growth rate in the less developed regions is the
higher estimated mortality in countries affected by
wars ( Rwanda, Liberia, Burundi, Iraq) or by the
spread of AIDS. For example, life expectancy for
1990-1995 in Eastern Africa is estimated at 46.7
years, 3.9 years lower than projected in the
previous Revision.
The population of the more developed regions
increased at an average of 0.40 per cent per annum
between 1990 and 1995. The major changes occurred
in Eastern Europe, where life expectancy declined
from 70 years in 1985-1990 to 68 years in
1990-1995, and net international migration in
1990-1995 was estimated to be + 1.4 million instead
of -0.5 million projected in the last Revision.
Overall, fertility in these regions declined only
marginally faster than expected two years ago, to
1.68 children in 1990-1995, instead of 1.70. In
Europe, (except for Eastern Europe), life
expectancy increased slightly faster than
previously expected, reaching 76.7 years in Western
Europe for 1990-1995.
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