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Study Warns of
Population Growth
Washington, May 29 1992 (IPS) -- rapid
population growth and increasing consumption are
burning nature's candle at both ends, spelling
possible disaster for forests, topsoils, water
supplies, climate, and millions of people,
according to a report released here friday.
the report, published by the johns hopkins
school of public health, was timed to coincide with
the opening next week of the u.n. conference on
environment and development (unced), the so-called
'earth summit', in rio de janeiro, brazil.
"current consumption may be diminishing nature's
future productivity -- not just exhausting current
supply but also stealing from our children," said
the report, titled, 'the environment and population
growth: decade for action'.
the report calls for efforts to clean up
pollution, preserve natural resources, and minimise
further damage to the earth's environment.
people in developed countries comprise less than
a quarter of the world's 5.4 billion population,
yet they consume roughly three-quarters of the
world's raw materials and energy, and produce no
less than three-quarters of its solid wastes, it
says.
meanwhile, people in developing countries are
struggling to cope with pressures caused by rapid
population growth.
at current rates, 95 percent of the people added
to the world's population in the next 35 years are
expected to be born in these nations, creating the
potential for more environmental damage as they
strive to improve their standard of living.
the study says a key component of any
"sustainable development" strategy will be to slow
population growth by helping couples to voluntarily
plan to have fewer children.
but time is short, it warns, noting that if a
two-child family becomes the global norm by the
year 2000, world population would stop growing at
under nine billion.
if, however, it takes until 2025 for world
fertility rates to drop to just 2.5 children, the
total would reach 19 billion by 2100 and continue
to grow. the current world average is 3.4 children
per couple.
while family planning is no ''quick fix'' for
environmental problems, immediate action is
necessary, according to the report.
if a couple gives birth to three children, and
they and their children each had three children,
the couple eventually would have 27
great-grandchildren. but if the number was six
children at each generation, the couple would have
216 great-grandchildren -- eight times as many.
to halt world population at 12 billion -- more
than twice the current level -- family planning
services will have to serve 40 percent more couples
in developing countries by the year 2000, according
to hopkins researchers.
such a goal is attainable because an estimated
100 million couples in developing countries already
want to limit or space births, but are not using
family planning services.
"the irony is that women in developing countries
want family planning," said phyllis tilson piotrow,
who worked on the study. "at the same time,
political leaders who support family planning can
win votes," she added.
she noted in that in the philippines earlier
this month, voters generally ignored advice by the
roman catholic church there not to vote for
candidates who favour family planning.
but time is also short for environmental action,
according to the report.
"if we do nothing between now and the year 2000
to counteract current trends, it will take several
centuries for the world's forest cover to be
restored, at least 1000 years for depleted topsoil
to be replenished, and several thousand years or
more to bring earth's climates back to today's
conditions.''
source: en.unced.general, 2 June
1992.
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