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Problems
with Naive Inductivism |
No
matter how many observations are made, they do not prove a generalisation.
This can be seen with the example of the inductivist turkey:
This
turkey found that, on his first morning at the turkey farm,
he was fed at 9 a.m. However, being a good inductivist, he did
not jump to conclusions. He waited until he had collected a
large number of observations of the fact that he was fed at
9 a.m., and he made these observations under a wide variety
of circumstances, on Wednesdays and Thursdays, on warm days
and cold days, on rainy days and dry days. Each day, he added
another observation statement to his list. Finally, his inductivist
conscience was satisfied and he carried out an inductive inference
to conclude, "I am always fed at 9 a.m.". Alas, this
conclusion was shown to be false in no uncertain manner when,
on Christmas eve, instead of being fed, he had his throat cut.
An inductive inference with true premises has led to a false
conclusion. (Chalmers, p. 14)
Similarly
scientists cannot prove their hypotheses merely through testing
them. Consider the logic of the following:
-
If
the hypothesis, H, is correct then the empirical event E will
be observed.
-
The
event, E, is observed.
-
Therefore
hypothesis, H, is correct.
No.
3. does not necessarily follow from the other two. However the
following argument is considered to be valid.
-
If
the hypothesis, H, is correct then the empirical event E will
be observed.
-
The
event, E, is not observed.
-
Therefore
hypothesis, H, is not correct.
This
means that it is always possible to disprove a theory but never
possible to prove a scientific theory. Science progresses through
falsification of old theories rather than proving of new ones.
...back to top
References:
Barry
Barnes, About Science, Basil Blackwell, Oxford, 1985, chapter
2.
Alan
Chalmers, What is this thing called Science, 2nd edition,
University of Queensland Press, St. Lucia, 1982.
Penelope
Sanderson, Inductivism,
its problems, and the theory dependence of observation, 1999.
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© 2003 Sharon
Beder |